The Maldives Meteorological Service has forecast below-normal rainfall for central and southern atolls in March 2026, with northern atolls expected to see near-normal to slightly below-normal rain.
Climate models show ENSO remains in a La Niña phase but is expected to shift toward neutral conditions between February and April. The Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral, while the Madden–Julian Oscillation is currently weak.
Forecast guidance indicates rainfall deficits are more likely in central and southern regions. Northern atolls show a weaker signal but could still see slightly reduced rainfall.
Temperatures, however, are expected to stay slightly above normal nationwide. Both daytime highs and nighttime lows are forecast to remain warmer than average throughout March.
Officials say the outlook is based on multiple global climate models and regional climate indicators.
